Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 337 PM EDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 10 2018 - 00Z Fri Oct 12 2018 ...Hurricane Michael forecast to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday with life-threatening rainfall along the coast and heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely for parts of the Southeast and Carolinas... ...Heavy to excessive rainfall will continue along a cold front finally beginning to push eastward across eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley... ...Large temperature contrast between the Eastern U.S. and the Central/Western states... Hurricane Michael is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane by Wednesday afternoon along the Florida Panhandle and continue a northeasterly track as it moves across Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely, with storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches (locally higher amounts up to 12 inches) forecast across the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend region, northward into the Carolinas. WPC has placed this entire region within a moderate risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding. In addition, dangerous hurricane force winds and life-threatening storm surge is likely along the coast where hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect. As is typical with a tropical system, a tornado threat will be present as well, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this with a slight risk on their convective outlooks for Wednesday and Thursday. For the latest information on storm track and intensity of Michael, please refer to the National Hurricane Center. The storm system responsible for the relentless heavy rainfall across the nations mid-section the past few days will finally begin shifting eastward this evening. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy to excessive rainfall will continue along the cold front as it progresses through the central Plains, Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Great Lakes. Through early Wednesday, a moderate risk for excessive rains/flash flooding remains in place from eastern Oklahoma to Wisconsin with a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. A slight risk for excessive rainfall also extends into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by Thursday as this front begins to interact with the moisture and circulation of Hurricane Michael. Out west, underneath broad upper level troughing, heavy snowfall is also possible on the backside of this system across the higher elevations of the northern/central Rockies, and portions of the northern and central Plains. Winter weather advisories and a few warnings are in effect from western Nebraska into southern North Dakota. Lower elevation rain and mountain snows are also possible across the Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to temperatures across the country, the central U.S. frontal boundary will continue to be the dividing point between a warm and humid airmass across the East, and chilly Arctic air in the central and western states. Temperatures ahead of this front are as much as 10 to 20 degrees above climatology for this time of the year, and widespread overnight high minimum temperature records are in jeopardy Tuesday and Wednesday night from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast. On the other end of the scale, behind the front daytime high temperatures are forecast to dip to as much as 15 to 30 degrees below normal especially across the northern and central Plains. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php