Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 14 2018 - 00Z Tue Oct 16 2018 ...Heavy rainfall and severe weather expected across the southern Plains which could lead to flash flooding... ...Heavy snows possible along the central and southern Rockies in addition to the central High Plains... ...Cold, autumn air will spread across the western and central U.S. for the start of this week... An active pattern is underway across the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley as a elongated trough digs across the western U.S. This trough is bringing tropical moisture across these regions and giving way to showers and thunderstorms along the Red River Valley, central Texas and most of Oklahoma. For today, this cluster of thunderstorms is expected to spread from north Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Some of these thunderstorms are capable of producing flash flooding as WPC has highlighted a moderate risk for today. In addition, severe weather will also be a hazard--which SPC has issued a slight risk for generally the same region. By tomorrow, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected for this area--which will bring another moderate risk of flash flooding and a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. Mid-level energy associated with that elongated trough will drop southward from the northern Rockies to the central and southern Rockies. As a cold front pushes past this area, cold temperatures will settle and heavy snow will spread from the northern Rockies in Idaho and Wyoming to the higher terrain of Wyoming, Colorado, and northern New Mexico tonight into Sunday. Snow will also increase over the central Plains in Nebraska and Kansas. By Monday, snow will dissipate in the northern portions of these regions as moisture becomes limited; however, lingering snows across the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico will be possible. As a strong cold front sweeps across the western and central U.S., cold temperatures will follow. On Sunday, high temperatures will not escape the low 40s across the northern and central Plains in addition to the Upper Midwest--which are 20 to 30 degrees below average. As the cold front presses eastward over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, high temperatures from the Dallas-Fort Worth region to the Big Bend will settle into the mid-upper 40s. Similar temperatures will also be felt for the middle Mississippi Valley. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php