Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 01 2018 - 00Z Sat Nov 03 2018 ...Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms from southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight, with a Slight Risk continuing along the central Gulf Coast during the day on Thursday... ...Widespread heavy rainfall expected near a cold front from the southern Plains/Gulf Coast northward to the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes through Thursday night... ...Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern California today, followed by an Elevated risk on Thursday... A cold front will move through Texas and Louisiana tonight bringing a significant drop in temperatures with highs falling from Halloween's 80s/90s to the 70s for Thursday. Given favorable winds aloft ahead of the cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue through Thursday morning with the greatest threats coming from tornadoes and damaging straight line winds. As highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms will remain on Thursday for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The other hazard associated with this frontal system will be heavy rain. Two to four inches of rain is forecast from southeastern Texas into and along the central Gulf Coast through Thursday, with similar totals (locally higher) from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley through early Thursday night. Anomalous moisture near and ahead of the front along with slow movement will generate possible flood and flash flood conditions across a large portion of real estate covering locations from the Gulf Coast to the lower Great Lakes through Friday morning. Maximum temperatures will range 10-15 degrees above average ahead of the cold front and average up to 10 degrees below average in the immediate wake of the cold front. Southern California will continue to see Critical fire weather conditions today with low relative humidities and strong/gusty winds. Winds are forecast to subside into Thursday morning relative to the day on Wednesday but should continue to maintain an Elevated Risk across portions of southern California on Thursday including the Santa Ana region. Elsewhere across the West, scattered rain showers will continue across the Pacific Northwest through much of Thursday with varying intensity with a temporary break late Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, a cold front will bring a renewed surge of heavy rain by Friday morning across western Washington, quickly dropping south into Oregon and interior portions of the Northwest during the day on Friday with higher elevation snow into Idaho, Oregon and Wyoming. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php