Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 224 AM EST Mon Nov 05 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 05 2018 - 12Z Wed Nov 07 2018 ...Severe storms are expected concentrate Monday evening and overnight from the lower Mississippi into the Tennessee valley... ...Heavy snow for portions of the northern Rockies... A frontal system over the western U.S. is forecast to drop southeast into the central Plains later today. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the front will draw very moist air up from the Gulf Coast region, fueling shower and thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the potential for these storms to become strong to severe, especially late in the day as the front moves further east into the middle and lower Mississippi valley. A Slight Risk for severe weather extends from the lower Mississippi into the lower Ohio valley on Day 1. Within this area, an embedded Enhanced Risk is centered from the lower Mississippi to the Tennessee valley, where the Storm Prediction Center notes that severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected to concentrate Monday evening and overnight. This front will continue to move east, with showers and storms moving from the Midwest into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. Again, there is the potential for some storms to become strong to severe, with the Storm Prediction Center indicating a Slight Risk for severe weather for a portion of the Southeast northward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Day 2. Storms are expected to diminish across much of the East as the front moves offshore Tuesday evening. However, the threat for showers and storms will continue across the Southeast back into the southern Plains as the front is expected to stall across the region on Wednesday. Back to the west, rain and snows will accompany a frontal system as it moves east across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest on Monday. Behind the system, colder air will spill southeast from the northern High Plains into the central U.S., resulting in some well-below normal daytime highs east of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the front banks up along the northern Rockies, this will encourage periods of snow, with some locally heavy accumulations possible from the ranges of northern Idaho and western Montana to western Wyoming. Dry conditions will continue across much California, the Southwest and the Great Basin. Low daytime relative humidities, along with windy conditions are expected to elevate fire weather conditions for portions of the northern Sacramento valley in California on Monday. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php