Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 12 2018 - 12Z Wed Nov 14 2018 ...Extremely Critical fire weather conditions continue in California... ...Heavy rain expected Monday across the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic region... ...Snow possible in the Southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Monday... Dangerous fire weather is unfortunately expected to continue in California. A tight pressure gradient will keep producing high winds, and very dry air is in place with low relative humidities. This plus the ongoing drought conditions will all create conditions favorable for fire weather. The Storm Prediction Center has an Extremely Critical area outlooked for Southern California on Monday and Tuesday, while Critical conditions continue for Northern California on Monday. Widespread Red Flag Warnings are in effect as well. A low pressure system will move along the Central Gulf Coast today, with another low forming Monday night along the Eastern Seaboard. The developing lows and associated fronts will lead to heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches for the Southeast and Carolinas today. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in place for the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic region for Monday morning until Tuesday morning. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast, where the warm front is inland so there is more instability. Rain will spread farther north into the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast on Monday night as the low moves north, with over an inch of rain possible. A cold front located from the Upper Great Lakes region through the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains is forecast to push eastward through the beginning of the workweek. Behind the cold front, snow is possible. 1 to 4 inches of snow is expected for parts of the Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on Monday. Widespread Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and northern Arkansas. Freezing rain is also possible in some areas, but accumulations should remain light. Lake enhancement along with this system will lead to snow of 2 to 4 inches in the Great Lakes region as well on Monday. As the jet stream strengthens on Tuesday, snow forecasts expected to increase to 4 to 6 additional inches in parts of the Great Lakes region. Northern Maine is expecting heavy snow of 6 to 10 inches on Tuesday, on the backside of the low pressure system forming along the Eastern Seaboard. Temperature-wise, much colder than average conditions will persist across the center of the country. High temperatures of 20 to 30 degrees below normal are forecast for the Southern High Plains, with cold throughout the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley. Freeze Warnings are in effect in parts of Texas where it has not yet frozen this season. Meanwhile, Florida is forecast to be warmer than normal, and could set both record high maximum and minimum temperatures by Tuesday. The West Coast will be warmer than average as well. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php