Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 13 2018 - 12Z Thu Nov 15 2018 ...Extremely Critical fire weather conditions continue in Southern California with Air Quality Alerts for smoke... ...Lake enhanced snow for the Great Lakes region and snow for the interior Northeast is expected... ...Winter weather event beginning Wednesday night in the Middle Mississippi Valley to Southern and Central Appalachians... Though the worst of the fire weather conditions have wound down for Northern California, another day of dangerous fire weather is forecast for Southern California. Extremely Critical conditions remain in effect, as low relative humidities and windy conditions will combine with the dry ground from ongoing drought. Additionally, Air Quality alerts are in place because of ongoing smoke from wildfires. Air quality is especially poor in the valleys where the smoke gets trapped by an inversion. A developing low pressure system will move along the Eastern Seaboard today, leading to widespread precipitation. Rain is expected across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and coastal Northeast today, while the interior Northeast will be cold enough to get snow. Rainfall totals will be around an inch in coastal New England, and snowfall totals could be high in northern New England, with 6 to 8 inches forecast. A cold front sweeping through the Great Lakes and a strengthening jet stream will lead to lake enhanced snow as well. Snowfall totals could be 6 to 10 inches downwind of the lakes. A strong upper-level low will take shape across the Southern Plains on Wednesday and move into the Tennessee Valley. As it does so, a surface low will develop in the Southeast Wednesday evening and move into the Tennessee Valley by Thursday morning, and yet another surface low pressure system will begin to strengthen along the South Carolina coast. All this will lead to another precipitation event for the eastern U.S. This time, snow is possible centered over the bootheel of Missouri, with 2 to 6 inches forecast. Another concern with this event will be freezing rain--accumulating freezing rain is possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, but is expected to have the highest totals over the Southern and Central Appalachians through Thursday morning, with over a quarter of an inch of ice currently forecast there. Stay tuned for forecast updates, as winter weather forecasts can change up until (and throughout) the event. Farther south, heavy rain is possible across the Southeast, and a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in place for parts of the Southeast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue in Florida on both Tuesday and Wednesday as a front lingers there. An upper-level ridge will produce warmer than normal temperatures over the western U.S. and Northern Plains by midweek, but the Southern Plains and throughout the Mississippi Valley will remain colder than average. Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings are in effect for much of Texas and southern Arizona and New Mexico. Record low maximum and minimum temperatures could be set in Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. Meanwhile, Florida is forecast to remain warm, with record highs possible on Tuesday. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php