Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 Valid 00Z Wed Nov 14 2018 - 00Z Fri Nov 16 2018 ...Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions continue this evening and Wednesday for portions of Southern California... ...An accumulating snow and ice event is expected to begin by Thursday from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... ...Freeze warnings in effect through tonight from Southern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... Critcal to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this evening and into Wedesday across portions of Southern California as gusty Santa Ana winds combine with already very low relative humidities and ongoing drought. High wind warnings and red flag warnings remain in effect. In addition, air quality alerts are in place across the valley of central California due to heavy smoke from ongoing wildfires. Although conditions should improve somewhat by Thursday, an at least elevated fire weather threat is expected to continue. A deepening surface low exiting New England this afternoon will pull heavy precipitation away from the Northeast but should continue to allow for moderate accumulating snowfall downwind of the upper and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Meanwhile, another surface low takes shape in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, deepening as it lifts northward along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts on Thursday. Heavy rainfall across the Southeast and into the eastern Mid-Atlantic region is expected with WPC showing a marginal to slight risk for excessive rain/flash flooding. The bigger story with this system will be with a winter weather event expected to unfold from the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic with accumulating snow and ice likely. The highest snow accumulations are expected underneath the upper level low itself across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where 4 to 8 inches is forecast. Farther east across the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians, and the interior Mid-Atlantic (west of I-95), generally 1 to 2+ inches is expected. Freezing rain will also be a concern across some of these same locations with generally up to a tenth of an inch expected across the lower Ohio Valley and western Mid-Atlantic but more significant accumulations of a tenth to a quarter of an inch of ice is also possible across the central Appalachians, and parts of western Virginia and Maryland. Regarding temperatures across the CONUS, much of the east will experience well below normal temperatures through the short range period. A swath of freeze warnings and watches are in effect through tonight from southern and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley where temperatures are 15 to 25 degrees below normal and record low daytime temps are possible Wednesday with values struggling to get much higher than the low 30s to mid-40s. Meanwhile out west and into the northern tier, temperatures should stay above average the next few days with afternoon highs as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal across the Northern and Central Plains. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php