Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 14 2018 - 12Z Fri Nov 16 2018 ...Freezing rain and snow are likely from the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Southern Appalachians and northward to the Northeast... ...Heavy rain across the Southeast on Wednesday... ...Another day of dangerous fire weather for Southern California... A deep upper-level low will move northeastward from the Southern Plains into the Central Appalachians over the next couple of days. As it does so, a surface low is expected to develop in the Tennessee Valley, with another surface low pressure system strengthening and moving along the Eastern Seaboard. Wintry precipitation will begin on Wednesday across parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, spreading east and north to the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Both snow and freezing rain are possible with this system. The heaviest snow on Wednesday is forecast for parts of the lower Ohio Valley under the upper-level low, with 4 to 8 inches of snow currently expected in southern Illinois. More heavy snow is likely for interior portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Thursday as the Eastern Seaboard surface low strengthens. 4 to 8 inches of snow is forecast there as well, with locally higher amounts. Cities along the I-95 corridor are not expected to receive too much snow. In terms of freezing rain, over a quarter of an inch of accumulated ice is likely, mainly in the Southern to Central Appalachians. Lighter amounts of freezing rain could be seen across much of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Farther south, heavy rain will be a threat across the Southeast on Wednesday as moisture streams in ahead of the upper-level low. Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected across parts of the Southeast, and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in effect for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. On Thursday as the surface low moves north, heavy rain is possible across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region, where it will not be cold enough for winter precipitation. Southern California will once again have a Critical Risk of fire weather on Wednesday, especially in the higher terrain, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Winds will be particularly strong in the morning, with very low relative humidity and extremely dry ground from ongoing drought. Winds are expected to weaken by Wednesday evening, somewhat lessening the fire weather concerns. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php