Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 256 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 15 2018 - 00Z Sat Nov 17 2018 ...An early-season winter storm to bring ice and snow from the Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Applachians and Interior Northeast through Friday... ...Heavy rain expected over the Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday and Thursday... ...Continued fire weather concerns for Southern California...though slow improvement likely by the end of the week... A significant storm is taking shape over the lower Mississippi Valley and is expected to impact sections of the central and eastern U.S. with an early-season bout of winter weather through Friday. Through Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, a deep upper-level low moving across the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys will bring accumulating snow from eastern Missouri across central and southern Illinois and sections of western Indiana and western Kentucky. The heaviest amounts...upwards of 4-7 inches are expected over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, where Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Farther east, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico spreading northward ahead of this upper low will encounter a cold air mass in place over the Appalachians tonight through Thursday. At the same time, a surface low forming along the Carolina coast will strengthen and move northward along the coast, causing a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to break out over the southern/central Appalachians overnight and continue through much of Thursday as the cold air will be tough to scour out. The main impact for this region will be sleet and freezing rain, where there is the potential for up to .25 inch of ice over the Shenandoahs and Laurel Highlands. Winter storm Watches and Warnings are posted across this region. As the low moves up the East Coast Thursday through Friday, a wintry mix of precipitation will spread across the northern Appalachians/mid-Atlantic states and into the Northeast. Precipitation across interior sections will mostly be snow and sleet, with a large swath of up to 4-8 inches accumulation by the time the storm departs on Friday. Along the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston, precipitation on Thursday may start out as a period of snow, sleet or light freezing rain and may cause travel problems before changing over to rain as temperatures slowly warm. With the exception of northern Maine, precipitation should mostly wind down by later Friday afternoon. East of the wintry precipitation, moderate to heavy rains are likely from the Southeast through coastal sections of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through early Friday. Rainfall totals will range from 1-2 inches over this region, with locally heavier amounts possible as Atlantic moisture wraps into the strengthening surface low. As a result, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in effect from central Georgia into western South Carolina through Thursday morning. During Thursday and Thursday night, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall extends from the North Carolina coast northward through Long Island. It appears that the strong Santa Ana winds will finally begin to subside during the next few days. Even so, the Storm Prediction Center maintains an elevated fire weather risk through Thursday as relative humidities remain low and offshore flow continues. By this weekend, the flow will start to turn more onshore, lessening the risk further. Klein Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php