Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 254 PM EST Fri Nov 23 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Nov 24 2018 - 00Z Mon Nov 26 2018 ...Winter storm will bring heavy snow and strong winds from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes beginning Saturday night... ...Heavy rainfall in California will continue to lead to flash flooding, debris flows, and mudslides through tonight with a break in the precipitation expected this weekend... ...Heavy snowfall likely in the higher terrain of the Intermountain West and the Rockies... ...Heavy rainfall will impact the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast on Saturday, with light ice accumulations possible in the Appalachians... Heavy rainfall and mountain snows across California should finally break this weekend, but the threat for flash flooding, debris flows, and mudslides remain into Saturday especially over recent burn scars. Across the interior West, heavy mountain snowfall will continue through Saturday across the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies and Intermountain West. Accumulations up to 2 feet are forecast, and winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect across these regions. By Saturday evening, this same upper level system reaches the Central U.S. inducing a low at the surface across the central High Plains. As this low tracks eastward, a winter storm is likely to develop by Saturday night and quickly strengthen on Sunday from parts of the Central Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley. Significant snowfall is possible, and winter storm watches are in effect from Nebraska/northern Kansas to northwest Illinois for the potential of 6 inches or more of snow. In addition to heavy snow, strong winds will accompany this system resulting in the potential for blizzard conditions in the hardest-hit areas. This combination of heavy snow and strong winds may lead to power outages and will certainly make for potentially dangerous travel conditions to end the Holiday Weekend. This same system will also bring heavy snowfall to portions of the Great Lakes region by Monday. Showers will continue pushing eastward tonight from the Gulf Coast/Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley/Southeast ahead of upper level troughing. By Saturday morning, rainfall intensity across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians will begin to ramp up as a surface low develops off the Southeast Coast. The surface low tracks northward along the East Coast on Saturday, with the precipitation shield following suit reaching the New England by Saturday evening. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Given the proximity of the surface low to the coast, most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, except in the higher terrain of the central and northern Appalachians where light freezing rain accumulations are possible. Generally, up to a tenth of an inch of ice is forecast with winter weather advisories in effect from western North Carolina to western Pennsylvania. After a chilly Thanksgiving holiday for many in the East, temperatures should rebound by this weekend with afternoon highs near or even slightly above normal by Sunday. Meanwhile across the Central U.S., above average temps on Saturday get replaced by below normal values on Sunday following the passage of a strong cold front. Afternoon highs on Sunday across the Central and Northern Plains, and back into the Central Rockies could be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php