Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1259 PM EST Sat Dec 01 2018 Valid 00Z Sun Dec 02 2018 - 00Z Tue Dec 04 2018 ...Major winter storm to impact portions of the Great Plains and Midwest through early Sunday... ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley and also the central and eastern Gulf Coast states... An active weather pattern will be in place through the weekend across the central and eastern U.S. as a strong surface low tracks from Kansas to the Great Lakes region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected from the middle Mississippi River valley to the East Coast. Farther south within the warm sector of the developing surface low, there will be plenty of moisture advancing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and this coupled with at least modest instability will favor a threat of severe thunderstorms across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley, and also the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center currently has much of these areas delineated in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight, with the hazards including tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with locally several inches of rain expected to fall across portions of the Gulf Coast states. This will drive a threat for some flooding, and in fact the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted areas of the Florida panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall through tonight. Winter weather will also be a major component of this mid-latitude cyclone to the north and west of the occluded surface low. Winter storm warnings are currently in effect from eastern Montana to northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and some locations are expected to see in excess of one foot of snowfall. The heaviest amounts will likely be across areas of southern South Dakota and north-central Nebraska. Winds will be rather strong on the back side of the deepening low center, and this will result in areas of blowing snow and very poor visibility which will make hazardous travel conditions. The winds will also likely result in some power outages too, and especially with the snow being heavy and wet. Temperatures are expected to be quite mild ahead of the cold front from the southern plains to the Mid-Atlantic and points south through early Sunday. Afternoon highs could be as much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal south of the warm front, with readings well into the 70s and reaching the mid 80s across much of Florida. Much colder weather will become established over much of the Intermountain West and then the northern plains by the beginning of the work week on Monday as cold high pressure settles south from Canada. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php