Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Mon Feb 04 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 04 2019 - 12Z Wed Feb 06 2019 ...Heavy rain and threats for flash flooding continue for portions of California today... ...Heavy snow likely over mountainous regions from the Sierras to the Central Rockies... ...Ice storm from northern Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan early today... ...Wintry mix expected for portions of the Midwest Tuesday/Tuesday night... ...Temperatures will be well below average from Montana into the Dakotas and well above average temperatures from the Southern Plains to the East Coast... A highly active pattern will continue across the lower 48 early this week with a series of storm systems impacting locations west of the Continental Divide with snow for the mountains and much of the Intermountain West along with lower elevation rain. Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding will continue to be a concern early today across recent burn scar locations of northern California along with the Transverse Ranges of southern California. While rainfall intensities may not be as high across southern California as in recent days, much of the area has received 200 to 400 percent of normal precipitation over the past seven days which has left the area susceptible to runoff due to heavy rain. As a pair of cold fronts move inland across the western U.S. over the next two days, snow levels will fall allowing temperatures to support snow across much of the Intermountain West by Tuesday afternoon. Snow will be measured in feet across the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Wasatch Range, with locally heavy snow also expected into the central to northern Rocky Mountains. Due to the magnitude of cold air expected across the Intermountain West, many lower elevation locations will see at least light snow over the next two days. Arctic air will stay entrenched across the Northern Plains into much of Montana through the middle of the week with temperatures ranging 20 to 40 degrees below average. Sub-freezing temperatures will also extend into northern portions of the upper Great Lakes region. Ahead of a surface low/cold front tracking through the Great Lakes, accumulations of a quarter to a half inch of freezing rain are expected by this evening from northern Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan. Colder temperatures will filter in behind the cold front supporting a threat for a wintry mix of snow for the Upper Mississippi Valley and freezing rain for portions of the Midwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, with all rain closer to the Ohio Valley. It is ahead of this cold front where high temperatures today and Tuesday will range 10 to 25 degrees above average, extending from Oklahoma and Texas into and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the East Coast, a far cry from some of the record low temperatures observed earlier last week across northern locations. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php