Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 14 2019 - 00Z Sat Feb 16 2019 ...Heavy rain along the coast and heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada expected for California over the next few days... ...Active weather pattern also expected across the Intermountain West and Central Great Basin... ...Snow expected across the Plains and middle Mississippi Valley... Multiple systems are expected to move across the West Coast and across the Intermountain West/Central Great Basin over the next few days--delivering rainfall and higher elevation snowfall. California will take center stage for both heavy rainfall along the coast and heavy snow across the Sierra Nevada. The first round of precipitation, which is already ongoing, will continue into this evening--with a slight lull in activity expected overnight although precipitation will still occur. By Thursday, as a frontal system moves inland, more rounds of heavy precipitation will be expected--particularly for southern California and the Sierra Nevada. In fact, from Thursday and into Friday morning, a high risk of excessive rainfall is possible for the portion of southern California that has been impacted by burn scars--which exacerbates conditions for flooding and mudslides. Furthermore, the Sierra Nevada has Winter Storm Warnings issued across the entire mountain range as snowfall amounts of 1 to 5 feet above 5,000 feet is expected--with 7 feet of snow possible above 9,000 feet. Additionally, winds could gust as high as 70 mph above 9,000 feet. These Winter Storm Warnings will be in effect through Thursday evening. By Friday, precipitation across California will lighten up--with heavy snow will likely continue for the Sierra Nevada. Meanwhile, rain and higher elevation snow is expected for the Intermountain West and Great Basin during the short term--but precipitation will ramp up on Thursday evening and last into Friday. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are expected across the higher elevations of the Central Great Basin in addition to parts of the northern and central Rockies--see these products for more details (www.weather.gov). Mid-level energy moving across the western U.S. will skirt across the Plains and middle Mississippi Valley on Friday. Cold Canadian air mixing with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, giving way to a swath of snow expected from Montana southeastward into northern Missouri. By the weekend, this wintry mix will stretch into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, the Great Lakes will get another round of snow beginning Thursday evening as an occluded system approaches the Upper Great Lakes at this time. By Friday morning, this frontal system will slide into the Lower Great Lakes--shifting the snow to this region--moving into New England later that day. In terms of temperatures, above average temperatures are expected for the Plains through Thursday--however as the strong cold front sweeps across this area, temperatures will plunge to 15-25 degrees below normal. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures will also be well above normal for the East Coast on Thursday and Friday. Given the active weather pattern for the western U.S., expect temperatures to remain well below normal. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php