Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 253 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 15 2019 - 00Z Sun Feb 17 2019 ...High risk of excessive rainfall across southern California today along with heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada... ...Heavy precipitation expected for the Great Basin and Intermountain West... The ongoing heavy rain and heavy snowfall event across California will continue for the rest of today and will relax by Friday. A stream of moisture along with a frontal system moving across California will continue bringing heavy rainfall along the coast. Southern California is particularly at risk for excessive rainfall and mudslides--so a high risk has been issued for this region--with a moderate risk stretching into Los Angeles. This risk will continue into Friday morning. Meanwhile, heavy snow will continue across the Sierra Nevada through the weekend--where winter storm warnings will be in effect through Sunday. As the frontal system pushes eastward into the Central Great Basin and Intermountain West, precipitation amounts across California will lessen, while increasing particularly across the Four Corners. Snow can be expected for this area in the higher elevations where winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings have been issued. Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding could be an issue for parts of central and eastern Arizona for the rest of the day through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, things will finally clear up for the Central Great Basin and Intermountain West--just in time for the next precipitation event to occur along the West Coast. From Friday afternoon and into Saturday, rain and higher elevation snow is expected mostly for the Pacific Northwest, northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong cold front surging southward across the Plains will bring cold air from the Dakotas to Oklahoma, with temperatures on the order of 10 to 20 degrees below normal by Friday for many areas. A wave of low pressure developing on the frontal boundary should produce enough ascent and moisture for a band of light snow from Montana to Missouri through Friday night. By Saturday, a stripe of snow can be expected from southern Illinois to the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front, mild conditions are expected across the Gulf Coast region and eastern U.S. to close out the week before colder weather arrives in time for the weekend. Snow is also expected across the northern Great Lakes and northern New England as a surface low lifts northward over Ontario and Quebec by tonight. Reinhart/Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php