Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 229 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 24 2019 - 00Z Tue Feb 26 2019 ...HIGH Risk of Excessive Rainfall/Flash Flooding for parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... ...MODERATE Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... ...Blizzard conditions forecast for the Central Plains into the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley... ...Heavy snow possible over the Cascades, Bitterroots, and Terons... Strong storm over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move northeastward to the Quebec/Ontario border by Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys that will move off the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast by Sunday afternoon. The rain from the storms will fall over saturated ground. A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the Tennessee Valley, where any additional rain will cause flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms for Northern Mississippi, Northwestern Alabama, and Southwestern Tennessee, where strong long-track tornadoes, strong winds, and hail are all forecast. The rain will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes that will move eastward into the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. On the north side of the storm, winter weather is expected across the Central Plains, Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, and into the Upper Great Lakes. A swath of heavy snow will develop over parts of the Central Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into Sunday. Snow will also develop over parts of Northern New England overnight Saturday into Sunday evening. As the surface low strengthens, blizzard conditions will develop with strong wind and low visibility due to snow. A long the rain/snow line, areas of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts Wisconsin and Northern Michigan. A developing upper-level low along the Pacific Northwest Coast will aid in developing coastal rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into Northern California with snow extending into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies. Snow levels will slowly lower that snow mix in the lower elevation cities (Portland) with the persistent cold conditions. Where rain does fall, it could be heavy at times, so a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the Northern California and Southern Oregon. Cold high pressure over West-Central Canada will move southeastward nosing into the Northern High Plains where temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees below average temperatures is expected by Sunday in the Northern Plains. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php