Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 250 PM EST Sat Mar 02 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 03 2019 - 00Z Tue Mar 05 2019 ...Locally heavy rains continuing tonight in California, with heavy snowfall likely for the Sierra Nevada and into parts of the central Intermountain West and Rockies... ...Slight risk for flash flooding and slight to enhanced risk for severe weather across parts of the Southeast on Sunday... ...Accumulating snowfall likely from the Central Plains to the Northeast... ...Bitterly cold arctic airmass will impact much of the U.S. east of the Rockies... A storm system entering California this afternoon will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall and mountain snows to parts of the state. Given recent heavy rains and sensitivity over burn scar regions, localized flash flooding is a threat for portions of southern California, and upslope/lower elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada. In the higher terrain of the Sierra, a foot or more of snow is still possible. This system shifts east into the Southwest/Four Corners this evening with accumulating snowfall likely across the higher terrain of the Central Great Basin/Intermountain West and the Colorado Rockies through tomorrow and continuing into Monday as weak upper level disturbances continue to move through in the flow aloft. As this system makes its way into the Southern Plains tomorrow, a surface low will track across the South, with heavy rainfall likely across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast, along with the threat for flash flooding and severe weather. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across parts of the Southeast, while SPC is highlighting this region within a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall may also reach into the southern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast coastline continuing into Monday. The northern edge of the precipitation shield should feature sufficient cold air to support accumulating snowfall from the Central Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast Sunday into Monday. Generally 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected across parts of the Central Plains, but the greatest threat for moderate to significant snow will be from roughly the central Appalachians to New England Sunday into Monday as the low pressure system deepens off the coast. The exact axis of heaviest snowfall depends highly on the track of the storm system, but potentially significant snowfall may impact some of the bigger cities along the I-95 corridor as well from Philadelphia to Boston. There is also likely to be a region of mixed precipitation or sleet within the transition zone between rain and snow likely along or just east of I-95. Strong high pressure dropping into the northern U.S. today will spread eastward the next few days ushering a very cold arctic airmass into most of the country east of the Rockies. Much below normal temperatures are expected from parts of the Northwest to the Southern Plains on Sunday, extending into the Midwest and East Coast states by Monday. The core of the cold temperatures will be from Montana to Kansas, where a large area of maximum temperature values of 40 to 50+ degrees below normal are forecast! But even as far south as Texas, daytime highs are in the 20s to 30s which could approach or exceed records for many places, with record low maximum temperatures also possible across the entire Central U.S. and into the Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php