Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 12 2019 - 00Z Thu Mar 14 2019 ...Heavy mountain snows expected across parts of the Southwest and the Pacific Northwest... ...Severe weather and heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday... ...Significant winter storm and blizzard conditions likely from the Colorado Rockies to parts of the central and northern Plains... An occluded low pressure system moving out of the subtropical Pacific and into the Southwest U.S. will bring the threat for rain and heavy mountain snows to parts of the Southwest and into the Colorado Rockies the next few days. To the northwest, a separate storm system will bring another round of rain and mountain snows to parts of the Pacific Northwest, with heavy snowfall possible in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. With time, this system will merge with the system in the Southwest U.S., which will lead to increasing snow potential across Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday. The heaviest snow is expected across the Colorado Rockies where as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible. The big story in the short range period will once the system in the Southwest ejects into the Plains by Wednesday. Ahead of this system, showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Southern Plains on Tuesday, with atmospheric conditions favorable for both heavy to excessive rainfall and severe weather. Both WPC and SPC have highlighted parts of this region within a slight risk for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms, respectively. By Wednesday, the storm is expected to rapidly intensify across the central Plains leading to the development of heavy snowfall to the northwest of the low center across parts of the central and northern Plains lasting into the beginning of the medium range period on Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will accompany this system as well leading to severe blizzard conditions across some areas and significant impacts to travel. To the South, rain and thunderstorms across the Southern Plains will continue, expanding north and eastward with time along the attendant cold front. Another day of heavy to excessive rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. Warm air surging northward ahead of this system into the Midwest over an area with a deep snow pack will support rainfall and accelerated snow melt resulting in flooding concerns Wednesday evening and night. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php