Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 13 2019 - 00Z Fri Mar 15 2019 ...A very active weather pattern in store from the Southwest into the Plains as a surface low rapidly deepens... ...Heavy snow and strong winds will impact the Rockies and Central/Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with blizzard conditions likely in some areas... ...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather are all possible in the warm sector of the low system... ...Warmer than normal in the East ahead of the cyclone and colder than normal in the West behind it... Over the next couple of days, an upper-level low will move across the Southern Rockies, spinning northeastward through the Central Plains and then into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system will rapidly strengthen in the lee of the Central Rockies Tuesday night and move slowly into the Central Plains on Wednesday, then tracking through the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. These features will create a myriad of weather hazards across the U.S. through Thursday. Firstly, to the north and west of the surface low, heavy snow is likely to spread across the Rockies and into the Plains. The San Juan Mountains, Central Rockies, and parts of the Central to Northern Plains are expecting 12 to 18 inches of snow, with isolated amounts of 2 feet. The strong low (nearing record low pressure values) will lead to a tight pressure gradient, which causes high winds. Thus, blizzard conditions are possible for the Central/Northern High Plains. The heavy snow and visibility near zero will create extremely dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are also possible. South and east of the low, rain and thunderstorms will be the main threat. On Tuesday evening and night, strong to severe thunderstorms will spread across eastern New Mexico and into Texas, where there is an Enhanced Risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. After the cold front passes, strong winds are likely in the Southern Plains with the aforementioned tight pressure gradient on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and a Slight Risk of severe storms is in place. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding are possible as well in the Southern/Central Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday, while on Wednesday, a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in place across parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Additionally, the warm air on the east side of the system means precipitation will fall as rain as far north as the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. This area has an extensive snowpack, so flooding is possible as the rain could cause snowmelt. The CONUS will be divided temperature-wise, with much above average temperatures in the eastern half of the country and below average temperatures in the east. Highs in the 60s will spread as far north as the Great Lakes region by Thursday, 15 to 25 degrees above normal. In the West, highs of 15 to 25 degrees below average are expected for the Intermountain West Wednesday and into the Northern/Central High Plains on Thursday. Low temperatures will stay within 5 to 15 degrees below average in the West. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php