Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Fri May 03 2019 Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2019 - 12Z Sun May 05 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall with the threat of flash flooding are expected for parts of the central/eastern U.S.... A front stretched across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southwestward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains is expected to slowly make its way eastward across the eastern U.S. through the end of the week. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in will help cause widespread rain and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Severe weather and heavy rain causing flash flooding are both possible. On Friday, the most likely area for severe weather will be in southern Texas, where a Slight Risk of severe weather is outlooked. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is also in place on Friday for much of Texas and into Louisiana and Arkansas. However, isolated strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall with the possibility of causing flooding are possible into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region as well. On Saturday, heavier rainfall totals are expected across the Ohio Valley, and a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in effect there. The severe weather threat is forecast farther south across the Southeast and Southern Appalachians. The front will divide warmer than average temperatures to the east of it and cooler than average temperatures to the west, with the Southeast and Tennessee Valley 5 to 10 degrees above average and the Mid-Atlantic region 10 to 15 degrees above average for high temperatures on Friday. A backdoor front settled across the northern Mid-Atlantic on Friday will keep the Northeast cooler than average, however. Behind the main front, temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees cooler than average in the Southern/Central Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. As the front pushes a bit eastward on Saturday, the Ohio Valley could see high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Saturday in the Southern and Central High Plains, which could be severe--there is a Slight Risk of severe weather in place there. A cold front coming into the Northern Plains late Friday will progress into the Upper Midwest on Saturday, causing showers along it. Temperatures are expected to cool below average in the Northern Rockies/Plains with this front, which could lead to light snow in those areas on Saturday. The rest of the West will warm and have above average temperatures for the most part by Saturday, and generally remain dry ahead of a low approaching California by Sunday morning. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php