Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Sun May 12 2019 Valid 12Z Sun May 12 2019 - 12Z Tue May 14 2019 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Central Gulf Coast to the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and also over parts of the Southern High Plains... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of New England into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic roughly southwestward to the Central Gulf Coast will slowly begin to move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coast by Monday morning as additional upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi Valley moves eastward. The boundary will move off most of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast by Monday evening, while lingering over Florida. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front from parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast that will, similarly, move off the Southern Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast Coast overnight Sunday into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will linger along the Eastern Gulf Coast and parts of Florida through Tuesday morning. Rain will also develop over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. The aforementioned upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move to the Northeast while strengthening by Tuesday. As the energy strengthens, rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. The rain will continue over the Great Lakes into the Northeast through late Monday night when the rain will end over the Upper Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. The rain will continue over part of the Lower Great Lakes to the Northeast through Tuesday. In addition, snow will develop over some of the highest elevations of Northern New England overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. The energy will also produce rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Sunday that will expand into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains by Sunday evening. Overnight Sunday, the rain will end over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Northern/Central Plains. Additionally, weak upper-level energy will aid in producing light rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Meanwhile, another area of upper-level energy over Northwestern Mexico will move eastward to Texas while weakening by Tuesday. As the energy moves eastward, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will flow northwestward into Western Texas. The energy will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the Southwest/Mexican border that will expand northward into the Southwest and into parts of the Southern Rockies on Sunday. Overnight Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms will move into Western Texas and expand into the Western Gulf Coast on Monday evening into Tuesday. Elsewhere a weak front will move into parts of the Northern High Plains on Monday that will move eastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. The system will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms overnight Sunday over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains that will expand into the Central Rockies and the Northern/Central Plains overnight Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php