Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 AM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 05 2019 - 12Z Fri Jun 07 2019 ...Moderate to High risk for flash flooding across parts of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana on Wednesday... ...Heavy to excessive rainfall threat shifts from the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday into the Central Gulf Coast states and eventually the Southeast by the end of the week... ...Severe weather threats for the Ohio Valley/Carolinas on Wednesday as well as parts of the Northern Rockies and Southern Plains on Thursday... The main story during the short range period will be regarding tropical Gulf of Mexico moisture interacting with an upper level low moving into the Southern Plains. Heavy to excessive rainfall is likely across southeast Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, with a high risk for flash flooding where as much as 4 to 7+ inches of rain is in the forecast from extreme southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This rain should shift into the Central Gulf Coast states on Thursday, with a slight to moderate risk for flash flooding. The threat continues into the medium range period as well with moisture spreading into the Southeast and the Southern Appalachians. The upper level energy will also bring scattered convection with the potential for severe weather and locally heavy to excessive rainfall across parts of eastern Texas into Oklahoma on Thursday. Elsewhere, a cold front dropping into the Ohio Valley will be a focus for heavy rain and severe weather today. Both SPC and WPC have slight risks out across portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Carolinas. Out West, showers and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of a cold front as it crosses the Northwest on Thursday, with a slight risk for severe weather from central Montana into eastern Idaho and far northwest Wyoming. Ahead of this, temperatures across the Northern Plains will be warm, with daytime highs running about 10 to 20 degrees above average on Wednesday and Thursday. Much of the Northwest U.S. should cool off significantly by the end of the work week as the upper level low moves inland. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php