Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 09 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 10 2019 - 00Z Wed Jun 12 2019 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains with an embedded enhanced risk over Texas... ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast/Southern Mid-Atlantic... ...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Appalachians... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the Southern High Plain/Southern Rockies... A weakening upper-level low over the Southeast/Southern Appalachians will continue to slowly weaken through Monday evening. The energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast into parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys that will move out of parts of the Tennessee Valley overnight Sunday. On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will move into parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic while continuing over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and the Ohio Valley. A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley then southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by Tuesday morning and southward into the Gulf of Mexico overnight Monday into Tuesday. Areas of rain and showers/thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley and into parts of the Southern/Central Plains on Sunday evening with the showers and thunderstorms ending over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday morning. As the boundary moves eastward, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front from the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast by Monday evening. By Tuesday evening, most of the showers and thunderstorms will move off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast while lingering over the Southeast. Overnight Sunday, the western end of the front will settle over the Southern Plains and move into parts of Northern Mexico. The low-level flow will become easterly over the Southern Plains into the Rio Grande Valley a long with moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains overnight Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over part of the Southern Plains and expand into parts of the Southern Rockies on Monday. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the showers and thunderstorms will end over the region. Elsewhere, disorganized upper-level energy will move over parts of the Northern Rockies on Monday afternoon into evening that will move eastward to the Northern/Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening while becoming better organized. Overnight Monday, areas of rain and showers/thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern High Plains into the Northern/Central Plains by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening, the showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and parts of the Southern Plains. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php