Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 15 2019 - 00Z Mon Jun 17 2019 ...Threats for severe thunderstorms over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas through the weekend... ...Possible flash flooding from repeating rounds of heavy rain across portions of the Ohio Valley beginning tomorrow and continuing through Sunday... There will be two significant areas for active weather over the next couple of days over the lower 48, one in the Great Plains and the other to the north of the Ohio River. One driving factor will be moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will feed north from the Gulf of Mexico, west of a surface ridge currently over the East Coast. Across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, high humidity will spread east-northeastward during the day Saturday which should help to fuel thunderstorms from Missouri into portions of the lower Ohio Valley, some of which could be severe as well as contain a threat for flash flooding. This will occur well out ahead of a strong cold front dropping southward through the Great Lakes region and near a weaker quasi-stationary front extending eastward through southern Illinois. This weaker boundary should dissipate Saturday night as low pressure from the Midwest begins to slide east. The end result will be several rounds of thunderstorms from the Mississippi River into portions of the Ohio Valley from late tonight through the day on Sunday bringing the potential for widespread 2-4 inch rainfall totals over a 2-3 day period extending from Illinois into western Pennsylvania. The southern to central Plains will see a threat for diurnally driven convection during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of a dryline and near a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity over the next couple of days. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through Sunday with an Enhanced Risk in place for this evening/overnight with the main threats coming from large hail and damaging straight line winds. Building weak upper level ridging out West will allow interior portions of the Northwest to see a warming trend into the weekend with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s forecast from Washington, Oregon and western Idaho extending southwestward into northern California. Relative stable conditions aloft will suppress the threat for afternoon/evening thunderstorms for many of these areas with better chances of convection to the east from the northern to central Rocky Mountains. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php