Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 157 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 08 2019 ...Record hot, and possibly smokey, conditions to continue across southern Alaska through Monday... ...Heavy rainfall and severe weather risk for the Northeast Saturday... ...Heavy rainfall across saturated areas of the central Plains/Midwest Saturday into Monday... A strong ridge of high pressure over Alaska maximizes in strength on Saturday before weakening and shifting westward Sunday and Monday. A dry northerly flow near and to its east is expected to foster a continuation of dry conditions and record high temperatures, with all-time records within reach, for southern Alaska into Monday as temperatures soar into the 80s and 90s. Wildfires across southern portions of the state combined with the strong high and very warm temperatures are expected to lead to periods of low air quality as well. Downstream across the Pacific Northwest, an upper level disturbance will strengthen slightly and lead to some cooling across the region urging a weak cold front through the area. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the higher terrain, and the associated surface low moving through southwest Canada is expected to foster a risk of severe weather in Montana on Sunday. See Storm Prediction Center outlooks for more information on the severe weather threat. A front will settle southeast with time east of the Great Plains as the jet stream shifts southward, with the boundary moving through the Midwest and Northeast Saturday, the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States Sunday, reaching the Carolinas by Monday. The front will act as a focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms near and in advance of the feature maximizing each afternoon and evening due to the prevalence of tropical moisture and influence of daytime heating. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat on Saturday is expected to lie across the central High Plains and Northeast, before shifting into Kansas (excessive rainfall) on Sunday and near Iowa Monday near and north of the stalling boundary. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic States Sunday into Monday near an area of low pressure along the front. The Gulf coast will remain steamy within a tropical air mass south of the front, with spotty record warm low temperatures possible Sunday and Monday. Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php