Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 08 2019 - 00Z Wed Jul 10 2019 ...Severe weather and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains going through Monday and Tuesday... ...Heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding are expected across portions of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region going through Monday, with the threat shifting to the Southeast and Florida on Tuesday... ...Record heat and wildfires will continue across portions of southern Alaska through Tuesday... A disturbance aloft near the Pacific Northwest will help push a low pressure system and a weak cold front east of the northern Rockies and into the High Plains through Monday. This low center will cross the Dakotas and approach the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. There will be a threat of severe thunderstorms in association with this system, with the main focus across Montana through this evening, and then extending farther south and east across the adjacent northern and central High Plains, including the Dakotas on Monday. In all of these areas, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk of severe weather, with the dominant hazard being large hail and strong, gusty winds. Heavy rainfall is expected with the system as well as it pushes east, and there will be some concern for localized areas of flash flooding across portions of the central and northern Plains through Monday night, and then advancing across portions of the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a cold front will settle slowly south across the Tennessee Valley, central and southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic going through tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, this front will settle down into portions of the interior Southeast and the Gulf Coast states. Low pressure will be focusing along the front tonight through Monday as the boundary crosses the central Appalachians and southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Very heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely across these areas going through Monday, and there will be a threat of flash flooding. Given the set-up, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across these areas. On Tuesday, the heavy rainfall threat will shift down across portions of the Southeast and including Florida. Low pressure will be refocusing by late Tuesday down near the Florida Panhandle, and so there may be some rather focused areas of heavy rainfall and some flooding concerns across this region as well. A very strong ridge of high pressure over Alaska slowly weakens and shifts northwest through Tuesday. A dry northerly flow near and to its east is expected to foster a continuation of dry conditions and near-record to record high temperatures, with all-time records within reach, for southern Alaska into Monday as temperatures soar into the 80s and 90s. Wildfires will remain a concern which will drive areas of smoke, and a degradation of air quality as a result. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php