Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 208 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 09 2019 - 12Z Thu Jul 11 2019 ...Severe weather/heavy rainfall expected for the Northern/Central Plains Tuesday & Great Lakes Wednesday... ...Low pressure area causes heavy rainfall for the eastern and central Gulf Coast Tuesday into Thursday... ...Record heat will continue across portions of southern Alaska on Tuesday... A surface low moving across the northern Plains and Great Lakes will produce a severe weather and heavy rain event over the Northern Plains through Tuesday, Great Lakes on Wednesday, with heavy rains slated for the Northeast on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to fall considerably behind the cold front trailing behind the surface low pressure system. Highs in the 70s are expected in the northern High Plains & Wyoming Tuesday which shift into the northern Plains and Minnesota on Wednesday and Great Lakes Thursday. An area of low pressure drifts southwest from Georgia into the northeast Gulf of Mexico just ahead of a weakening cold front by Wednesday, before turning west-southwest offshore the central Gulf coast/Louisiana on Thursday. Pockets of heavy rainfall are expected in Florida on Tuesday before shifting westward with the strengthening low to southern Louisiana Wednesday and Thursday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advertises a high chance of this system evolving into a tropical depression later this week. See Tropical Outlooks from NHC for the latest on this system's prospects as a tropical system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the system's circulation, record warm low temperatures are possible across the Southeast/Gulf Coast within a hot and humid summertime air mass. Record heat over parts of Alaska are expected to continue through today/Tuesday as a high pressure system weakens and move westward across the Bearing Strait into Russia. Fire weather and smoke concerns continue due to existing brush fires and the possibility of thunderstorm-induced fires over the next few days. Records are likely to be set on Tuesday, with slowly decreasing temperatures thereafter as the ridge moves farther afield. Increasingly hot temperatures are expected across the western United States with time as the jet stream retreats northward. By Thursday, highs in the 90s will be commonplace, with 110s expected in the Desert Southwest. Roth/Kebede Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php