Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1253 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2019 - 12Z Fri Jul 12 2019 ...Looming tropical threat in the northern Gulf of Mexico... ...Threat of heavy rainfall will begin to ramp up along the central Gulf Coast... ...Severe thunderstorms possible in the Great Lakes today... An area of low pressure will move southwest from the Florida Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico before slowly strengthening over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday while turning more westward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting a high chance of this system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Thursday. Please refer to Tropical Weather Outlooks from NHC for the latest on the status of the Gulf low. The low should begin delivering some heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast over the next couple days as it drifts slowly west just offshore the central Gulf coast. Outside of the system's circulation, record warm low temperatures are possible across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast within a hot and humid summertime air mass. Another low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will produce thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Northern Great Lakes and Midwest today/Wednesday and the Northeast on Thursday and Friday. Severe weather is possible with the thunderstorms on Wednesday, and large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. Localized flash flooding will also be possible. Cooler weather is expected behind an associated cold front, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s over much of the northern Plains on Wednesday, western Great Lakes on Thursday, and interior portions of the Northeast on Friday. Increasingly hot temperatures are expected across the western United States with time as the jet stream retreats northward. On Thursday and Friday, high temperatures in the 90s will be commonplace, with 110s and perhaps a 120+ reading or two expected in the Desert Southwest. Roth/Lamers Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php