Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 11 2019 - 00Z Sat Jul 13 2019 ...Looming tropical threat in the northern Gulf of Mexico... ...Risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will begin to ramp up along the central Gulf Coast... ...Severe thunderstorms possible in the Great Lakes today... An area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will begin to strengthen this week over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico while moving slowly westward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next day or so, and is now issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Please refer to the official NHC forecasts for the latest information on this system. The system should deliver some heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast over the next couple days as it drifts slowly west just offshore. Outside of the system's circulation, record warm low temperatures are possible across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast within a hot and humid summertime air mass. Another low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will produce thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Northern Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight, and the Northeast on Thursday and Friday. Severe weather is possible with the thunderstorms through Thursday, and large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. Localized flash flooding will also be possible. Cooler weather is expected behind an associated cold front, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s over the western Great Lakes on Thursday, and the eastern Great Lakes and interior portions of the Northeast on Friday. Increasingly hot temperatures are expected across the western United States with time as the jet stream retreats northward. On Thursday and Friday, high temperatures in the 90s will be commonplace, with temperatures exceeding 110 degrees expected in portions of the Desert Southwest. Lamers/Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php