Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 27 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 29 2019 ...Showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest through weekend, including the potential for some severe weather and localized flash flooding... ...Monsoonal moisture pooled across the Four Corners region will foster locally heavy showers and thunderstorms... ...Warm and dry weather is expected across the Northwest where there will be an elevated risk of fires... ...Seasonably warm and dry weather to continue for much of the East... An expansive area of high pressure will continue to dominate much of the central and eastern U.S. through the weekend and early next week, bringing pleasant and dry weather across much of the region. However, a weak front will remain stalled across the Florida Peninsula and will remain a focus for showers and thunderstorms across the state over the next few days. Meanwhile, a front extending from the upper Midwest to the central Rockies will move gradually eastward with the northern portion of the front slowly crossing the Great Lakes through the weekend while the southwest portion of the boundary stalls out toward the High Plains. An area of low pressure will develop along the front and push east toward the Midwest on Sunday. The front and wave of low pressure will be an active focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for some localized severe weather and also flash flooding. A new cold front advancing across the Northwest will settle down across areas of the Intermountain West and the northern Plains by the end of the weekend, and will be responsible gradually for some notably cooler temperatures early next week for the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A portion of the same front will stall out over the Great Basin and central Rockies which will help keep some of the Southwest monsoonal moisture confined to the greater Four Corners region and especially over the central and southern Rockies. This will foster locally heavy showers and thunderstorms for these areas along with concerns for some flash flooding. However, the remainder of the West will be very dry, and the fire danger will be elevated in particular across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and far northern High Plains over the next couple of days. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php