Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Aug 01 2019 - 00Z Sat Aug 03 2019 ...Deep monsoonal moisture over the Southwest will foster numerous showers and thunderstorms along with locally heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding through this evening... ...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern later tonight and over the next couple of days for the lower Missouri Valley... ...Showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will focus across the Mid-Atlantic and New England through this evening... A slow-moving cold front will be crossing the Northeast through tonight, and will gradually settle over the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic region through Thursday as a wave of low pressure advances up along it. The boundary will become nearly stationary and will be a focus for at least scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms going through the end of the week. Some severe weather will be possible locally across the Mid-Atlantic and New England this evening as the front initially arrives. In the wake of the front, cooler high pressure from the Great Lakes region will begin to arrive and is expected to nose across the Northeast over the next couple of days. This will allow the hot and humid weather that had concentrated over these areas to finally break down. Farther south, the weather along the aforementioned front will be unsettled, but the clouds and threat of rainfall will keep temperatures cooler than its been lately. Much of the Midwest will see cooler and very pleasant conditions for the remainder of the week as the aforementioned high pressure center over the Great Lakes region controls the weather. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for these areas. However, areas farther west including the lower Missouri Valley will be closer to a frontal system and an area of low pressure focused over the central Plains. The proximity of the front and multiple disturbances dropping southeast across the region to the east of the frontal system will set the stage for a multi-day threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms set up across especially areas of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The maintain time frame for the heaviest rains will be tonight, Thursday night and Friday night, with locally several inches of rain possible each night. As a result of the cloudiness and rainfall threat, temperatures across this area are expected to be well above normal. Meanwhile, an upper-level high is forecast to remain centered over the southern Rockies and southern High Plains region over the next few days, with the high likely shifting gradually off to the west which will encompass more of the Southwest. Deep monsoonal moisture and embedded disturbances aloft lifting around the western and northern side of the upper level high support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners region through this evening, and then more concentrated across the central Rockies on Thursday and Friday. The potential for wet weather across these areas will also keep temperatures a bit below average. Meanwhile, as showers and thunderstorms around the periphery of the upper high over the Four Corners region will act to keep temperatures cooler, the temperatures will actually be above average farther east out across the southern High Plains where temperatures will likely exceed 100 degrees over the next few days. Elsewhere, a weak Pacific front stalled out across the Northwest may help to trigger some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a focus generally on the northern Rockies, but otherwise the Northwest will be dry at least for a couple more days with temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php