Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 05 2019 - 12Z Wed Aug 07 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms expected from the north-central Plains to the Upper Midwest... ...Locally heavy rainfall possible with rain and thunderstorms in the Southeastern U.S. and the Four Corners/Rockies... ...Excessive heat continues for portions of the Southwest... A cold front dropping south across the Upper Midwest and the north-central Plains will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Conditions should be favorable for the development of severe weather, with SPC highlighting a large area from Wisconsin to Nebraska within a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. The front should be progressive enough to limit flash flooding, but locally heavy to excessive rainfall is possible within the stronger thunderstorms. The cold front emerges into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Monsoonal moisture into the Four Corners states will continue to fuel daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Southern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, with locally heavy to excessive rainfall possible, particularly along the favored terrain. Tropical moisture across the Southern U.S. keeps storm chances in the forecast from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic early this week, with the better chance for enhanced precipitation across portions of the central Gulf Coast, southern Florida, and the Southeast coast on Monday. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories continue across portions of the Southwest where daytime highs may approach or exceed 110 degrees, with a few record highs possible. The remainder of the West will also be above average for this time of the year, with a few record high minimums (overnight lows) possible for parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php