Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 25 2019 - 12Z Tue Aug 27 2019 ..There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains... ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains... ...Critical Fire Weather Conditions for portions of the Northern Intermountain West... ...Low pressure along the east coast of Florida may strengthen to a tropical depression well off the Florida coast by Monday or Tuesday... Cool high pressure centered over eastern Canada will continue to support dry conditions and below-average temperatures from the Upper Midwest to the Northern Mid-Atlantic region through Monday. Meanwhile to the south, showers and storms are expected to develop along and south of a quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast back across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. Heavy rain will develop along parts of the boundary where excessive rainfall will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into parts of the Southern Plains. In addition, a front moving out of the Northern High Plains into the Northern Plains that will aid in developing showers and thunderstorms with some storms being severe. As the front moves eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. An area of low pressure along the Eastern Florida Coast will move northeast away from Florida, conditions appear favorable for strengthening and a tropical cyclone or a subtropical depression is likely to develop by Monday or Tuesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for additional information regarding this system. Dry conditions and gusty winds will support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Northern Intermountain West/Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for portions of Southern Idaho, Northern Nevada, Northern Utah, Southern Wyoming and Northern Colorado. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php