Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Aug 26 2019 - 00Z Wed Aug 28 2019 ...Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected across the Southwest and southern Plains on Monday... ...Temperatures to continue climbing across northern California and the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday... ...Strong to severe storms expected across portions of the northern Plains late Sunday into early Monday... ...Strong to severe storms expected across portions of the mid Mississippi valley, Kansas and Oklahoma Monday afternoon and evening... ...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible along the central Gulf coast and lower Mississippi valley through late Sunday... Across the western U.S. into the southern Plains, hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the early part of the week. Well above-normal to record-breaking temperatures are expected to continue tomorrow across the Southwest into the southern Plains. Heat advisories and excessive heat watches are in effect for Sunday and Monday across a large portion of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas, where daytime temperatures are forecast to climb well into the 100s both days. Temperatures are expected to increase from above-normal on Monday to much above-normal by Tuesday across northern California and the Pacific Northwest. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for inland portions of southwestern Oregon and northwestern California, where temperatures are expected to climb into the triple digits on Tuesday. A cold front will promote windy conditions, but little precipitation as it drops south across the northern Intermountain West and Rockies. Therefore, Red Flag warnings for critical fire weather conditions remain in effect into Sunday evening across portions of southern Idaho, northeastern Nevada, northern to central Utah, central and southern Wyoming and northern to central Colorado. Wetter conditions are expected to unfold as this front pushes farther east across the northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Some storms may become strong to severe, producing damaging winds and large hail as they move across portions of the Dakotas and northern Nebraska late Sunday into the overnight. On Monday, expect showers and storms to continue to develop ahead of the front as it moves farther to the east across the upper Mississippi valley toward the Great Lakes, while dropping southeast through the central Plains into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys. Ahead of the front, severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening from the mid Mississippi valley region into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Behind the front, below to much below-average temperatures are forecast to spread south and east from the northern into the central Plains Monday and Tuesday. Well ahead of the front, a series of upper level disturbance lifting northeast are expected to produce showers and storms from the central Gulf Coast northward into the Ohio valley late Sunday and Monday. With ample moisture in place, some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall accumulations, resulting in localized flash flooding. Some of the heaviest amounts are expected to occur across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where Flash Flood watches are currently in effect into Monday morning. Although it remains poorly organized, an area of low pressure centered off of the Southeast Coast has shown signs of becoming better defined. With conditions remaining favorable, it is expected that this system will develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next few days. However, the latest consensus of the the models show this system moving well offshore of the southeastern U.S. as it develops. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding this system. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php