Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 503 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 03 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 05 2019 ...Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move parallel but just off the southeastern U.S. coast the next couple of days, likely bringing high winds and heavy rain along the coast... ...A cold front is forecast to bring strong to severe thunderstorms from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes... ...A tropical wave over the western Gulf could develop into a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days, spreading gusty winds and squall showers into southern Texas... Hurricane Dorian has stalled over the northern Bahamas for an entire day just east of Florida while slowly weakening into category-3 intensity. While impacts were undoubtedly devastating over the northern Bahamas, southeastern Florida has only been affected by occasional rain bands spiraling out from the core of Dorian about just 100 hundred miles to the east. Dorian is forecast to begin moving toward the north-northwest just off the east coast of Florida today, reaching a position just off the South Carolina coast by Thursday morning. Squally showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the outer rain bands of Dorian are expected to spread northward along the coastal section of eastern Florida today, reaching the Georgia coastal sections by Wednesday morning and into South Carolina and North Carolina later on Wednesday into Thursday. Heavy rain could result in localized flooding across these areas. A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will begin to interact with the circulation of Dorian as the hurricane approaches. This will increase the chance of heavy rain near the Carolina coasts beginning on Thursday. Note that just a slight deviation to the left of the forecast track would bring higher winds and heavier rainfall all along the coastal sections of the southeastern U.S. including Florida. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Dorian. Outside of Dorian, the most active weather will be found today across the upper Midwest in the form of showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches. These thunderstorms are expected to become strong to severe along with heavy downpours that could result in flash flooding. By tonight into early on Wednesday, the thunderstorms should be organized ahead of a cold front across the Midwest into the Great Lakes. Later on Wednesday, the storms should become more scattered as they spread into the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. By Thursday morning, much of the activities should have moved out to sea off the New England coast. But for the Mid-Atlantic, showers will start to linger as the aforementioned cold front begins to interact with the circulation of Dorian. Over southern Texas, showers and thunderstorms have increased as a tropical wave over the western Gulf of Mexico becomes better organized, and could potentially develop into a tropical cyclone. Gusty winds and squally showers can be expected across southern Texas for the next couple of days. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this system. Over the interior western U.S., monsoonal moisture is making a comeback. Showers and thunderstorms, triggered by daytime heating, are expected to spread northward across the Desert Southwest ahead of an upper-level trough apparoching from the eastern Pacific. By Thursday morning the showers should be spreading northward into the Great Basin. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php