Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 04 2019 - 12Z Fri Sep 06 2019 ...Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move parallel but just off the southeastern U.S. coast the next couple of days, likely bringing high winds and heavy rain especially for the Carolina coasts where landfall is possible... ...A cold front is forecast to bring strong to severe thunderstorms into New England today... ...Moisture from Tropical Storm Fernand is expected to bring heavy rain to southern Texas and northeast Mexico through Thursday... The upper-level pattern across the U.S. continues to favor a broad trough over the eastern U.S. as a high pressure cell remains anchored over the High Plains. Meanwhile, after stalling for more than a day near the northern Bahamas and losing some intensity, Hurricane Dorian is now moving steadily north-northwestward just east of the Florida Peninsula. As Dorian moves closer toward the upper trough over the eastern U.S., the hurricane is expected to gradually turn toward the northeast tonight. This will bring the core of the hurricane very close to the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday into Friday. Squally showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the outer rain bands of Dorian are expected to gradually spread northward up the coastal section of northeastern Florida into Georgia through tonight. Some of these squalls will be accompanied with heavy downpours and even isolated tornadoes. A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will begin to interact with the circulation of Dorian on Thursday as the hurricane approaches the Carolinas. As this interaction occurs, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be focused near or just inland from the coast. This will increase the chance of flooding from heavy rain near the Carolina coasts beginning tonight, where a Moderate to High Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued. Maximum total rainfall amounts along coastal Carolinas could reach 15 inches by Friday. In addition to the rainfall, the wind field associated with Dorian is expected to expand in size. The Carolina coasts will likely experience high winds, storm surge and beach erosion as the center of Dorian passes in a close distance. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Dorian. Over the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Fernand is forecast to make landfall on the coast of northeastern Mexico during the day today. Some squally showers can be expected through tonight across southern Texas where a slight risk for excessive rainfall has been issued. Fernand is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico tonight. The rain over southern Texas is expected to gradually taper off on Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Fernand. Outside of Dorian and Fernand, the most active weather today will be in the form of showers and thunderstorms spreading from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast ahead of a cold front. The thunderstorms could become strong to severe as they move across New England this afternoon. Over the interior western U.S., monsoonal moisture is making a comeback. Showers and thunderstorms, triggered by daytime heating and above normal temperatures, are expected to spread northward across the Desert Southwest ahead of an upper-level trough approaching from the eastern Pacific. By Thursday morning the showers should be spreading northward into the Intermountain West and interior Pacific Northwest. Over the Desert Southwest, excessive heat warnings are in effect for parts of the area. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php