Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 17 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 19 2019 ...Heavy rain likely for parts of Texas... ...Above average temperatures over the Plains and Midwest... The overall weather pattern across the continental U.S. will be rather amplified aloft through the middle of the week with an upper level ridge encompassing much of the central U.S., and troughs near both the East and West Coasts. The ridge is expected to result in temperatures on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above average from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level trough building in across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West should keep below average temperatures in place, with perhaps some snow for the highest mountains. For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, a high quality airmass will become established over the region as a strong surface high from Canada governs the overall weather, making it feel more like autumn compared to recent days. In terms of precipitation prospects, the main area of concern will be across southeastern Texas as a very slow moving disturbance from the western Gulf of Mexico ushers in copious moisture to this region. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center exists for the elevated potential of flash flooding from several inches of expected rainfall. Elsewhere, moderate to locally heavy rain is likely from northern California to western Washington as a new Pacific storm system progresses inland, with some rainfall totals up to 2 inches possible. Across the Upper Midwest, a swath of showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a frontal boundary. D. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php