Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 18 2019 - 00Z Fri Sep 20 2019 ...Tropical Storm Imelda to bring heavy rain to parts of Texas and Louisiana... ...Above average temperatures over the Plains and Midwest... The disturbance that was been over the western Gulf of Mexico has developed into Tropical Storm Imelda and is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of coastal Texas and Louisiana then to areas to the north as it track further inland. A Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding is in effect for Houston metro and the surrounding counties. A Slight Risk spans from Corpus Christi to the Texas/Louisiana border with a Marginal extending from Padre Island, Texas to Baton Rouge, LA. The highest rainfall amounts will likely focus along the north Texas coast; where 6 to 12 inches with isolated 18 inches will be possible. Elsewhere across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, 4 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches will be possible. A Pacific system will move onshore ushering in moderate to locally heavy rainfall to portions of northern California, western Oregon and Washington. Rainfall amounts up to 2 inches is forecast. Another frontal system moving through the central/northern portion of the country will produce a swath of showers and thunderstorms to much of the Upper Midwest. Localized flash flooding may be possible over North Dakota and northern Minnesota. An upper level ridge encompassing much of the central U.S. will attribute to daily temperatures ranging 10 to 20 degrees above average from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest through Wednesday. An upper level trough building in across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West should keep below average temperatures in place, with perhaps some snow for the highest mountains. Near seasonal average temperatures can be expected across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a strong surface high from Canada ushers in slightly cooler air. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php