Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 339 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 24 2019 - 00Z Thu Sep 26 2019 ...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest... ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest... The remnants of former Tropical Storm Lorena will result in an increase in clouds and rain across the southwestern U.S. with an added destabilization with a strong upper-level low to the west. There should be enough moisture in place to support a significant rain with widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals with much higher amounts locally, with the greatest amounts in central and southern Arizona. With this degree of rain, the potential for numerous flash flooding is likely therefore a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is issued from WPC for in this region. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the Southwest. The biggest risk with these storms is frequent lightening, the capability of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out also with these storms. Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast then westward to the Southern Plains will move off most of the East Coast by Tuesday morning and mainly off most of the East Coast by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over parts of the Northeast moving off the Northeast Coast by Tuesday morning. Behind the front rain will develop over the Northeast through Wednesday afternoon. In addition, moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico and favorable upper-level flow will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Wednesday. Elsewhere, a front over parts of the Northern Plains southwestward to the Southwest will move eastward to the Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Plains on Tuesday afternoon that will expand southward along the boundary into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. The showers and thunderstorms will move into the Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. Additionally, Red Flag Warnings are up over parts of Northern/Central California due to low RH and gusty wind. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php