Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 24 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 26 2019 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across southern Arizona... ...Severe thunderstorms possible from the Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley ... After a day of active and stormy weather across central and southern Arizona yesterday, another round will be likely today. The mixture of abundant moisture and a potent upper-level low will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms across southern Arizona. Total rainfall amounts could add up to around 1 to 2 inches, which is enough to cause flash flooding concerns. WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across far southeastern Arizona, with a Slight Risk stretching further into Arizona and southwest New Mexico. More scattered showers and storms will be possible on Wednesday across the region. Elsewhere, a cold front will swing across the Plains and into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. As it does it will fuel thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Some of these storms could be severe, with damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of southeast Minnesota and central/western Iowa. At the same time a weaker cold front found across the southeastern U.S. is forecast to stall between central Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms along this front could lead to locally heavy rain and flash flooding. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, as well as Flash Flood Watches are in effect across this area. High temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above average across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest today ahead of the cold front. This equates to highs in the 80s, with low 90s across western Kansas. Summer will also hang on across the Southeast today and Wednesday. High temperatures here will run 5 to 15 degrees above average, with highs reaching into the mid-90s. A few cities such as Mobile, Alabama and Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Florida could break daily high temperature records on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below average will be found across the Northwest and Northern Plains by Wednesday. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php