Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2019 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2019 ...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Central Plains... ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Central Plains... ...Much below average temperatures across the Northwest into the Northern/Central Plains, and much above average temperatures east of the Rockies/Northern Plains... A quasi-stationary front extending from Great Lakes to the Southern High Plains will move very slowly through Wednesday evening. On Wednesday evening a wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move northward to parts of the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday morning. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary and just east of the Southern Rockies through Wednesday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms just east of the Southern Rockies and along and ahead of the boundary over parts of the Central/Southern Plains into parts of the Great Lakes, likewise, through Wednesday. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Central Plains with the main hazards of frequent lightening, damaging wind, and hail. The heavy rain associated with these storm may produce numerous areas of flash flooding with many streams flooding, potentially affecting larger rivers through Wednesday morning. This event will be notable in that a large portion of the country will receive several inches of rain and an elevated risks of flash flooding. A large temperature range is expected across the lower 48 into Thursday as an upper-level trough remains over the West and upper-level ridge anchored over the Southeast. Underneath the trough, daytime highs could be 20 to 30+ degrees below average across much of the Northern High Plains into parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Meanwhile east of the Rockies, temperatures will be much above average. The core of the heat will be from the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley where widespread daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s near 90 (north) and mid to upper 90s (south) could approach or exceed record values. For the East, this stretch of record warmth will continue through Thursday. Additionally, warm, dry, and gusty weather across Colorado and parts of Southeastern Utah will continue the critical fire weather conditions through Monday where red flag warnings are currently in effect. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php