Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 AM EDT Wed Oct 02 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2019 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2019 ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the Northern/Central Plains... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average from parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A slow-moving cold front extending from Northeast into the Great Lakes and across the Southern High Plains will move very slowly southeastward to off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast into the Southeast and the Southern Plains by Friday. By late Wednesday, a wave of low pressure will develop along this front over the Middle Mississippi Valley and will move northeast toward Western New York by Thursday evening. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Pacific Ocean will pool along the boundary. This will result in showers and thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Central/Southern Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over this region. Heavy rain associated with slow moving showers and thunderstorms will likely lead to scattered areas of flash flooding that will be mainly localized. Showers will linger across the Central and Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning before the cold front finally pushes through. Meanwhile, gusty winds and low humidity has lead to critical fire weather across Western-Central Colorado. This fire weather threat will diminish on Wednesday as winds calm. By Wednesday and Thursday, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Great Lakes and enter the Northeast. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect across portions of Southeast Montana and Southwest South Dakota, where a general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected. Temperature behind the front will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Temperatures will moderate a bit on Thursday, but will still remain around 10 degrees below average. Meanwhile across the southern and eastern U.S., temperatures will continue to break records. The core of the heat on Wednesday will stretch from the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, where widespread daytime highs in the upper 80s into the lower 90s (north) and mid to upper 90s near 100 (south) are expected. For the Southeast, this stretch of record warmth will continue into Friday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php