Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 13 2019 - 00Z Tue Oct 15 2019 ...Major to historic snowstorm across the Northern Plains should finally come to an end by Sunday... ...Subtropical Storm Melissa continues to bring coastal flooding and rough surf to coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... ...An elevated fire danger will continue through this evening across portions of Southern California... The major and locally historic early season winter storm that has been impacting the Northern Plains will be weakening and gradually advancing east across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region tonight through Sunday before then lifting into Canada. Some additional strong and gusty winds will continue to bring areas of blowing snow, and dangerous travel conditions through this evening across portions of the Dakotas and far western Minnesota, but the winds and any additional snow will be tapering off tonight into early Sunday. A cold front associated with this storm system is already moving well east toward the East Coast today, and temperatures in its wake are well below normal, with large areas of the Midwest expected to see high temperatures as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal through Sunday. In fact, frost advisories are in effect across the Ohio Valley and portions of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms may linger through the weekend from the Southeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley as the western portion of this same front becomes stationary and eventually begins lifting back north as a warm front. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Melissa is slowly advancing east and weakening while moving away from coastal areas of the Northeast. Coastal flooding and rough surf will remain a concern across some coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic, including the Chesapeake Bay, and also southeast England tonight through early Sunday. Conditions though will be improving by the end of the weekend. Across the Western U.S., the fire danger remains elevated across portions of southern California going through this evening, but conditions should improve by the end of the weekend and into early next week as the gusty winds tapering down. The West overall though will remain dry going into the start of the new week, with perhaps some late-day threat of rain on Monday across coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest as an offshore warm front approaches. Also, some threat of rain will begin to creep into southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico by late Monday as well as moisture lifts north across Mexico. Temperatures across the West will generally be slightly above normal, with exception to the Pacific Northwest and coastal areas of central and southern California where temperatures will be normal to below normal. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php