Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 16 2019 - 12Z Wed Dec 18 2019 ...Widespread wintry weather expected from the central Plains to the Northeast today through Tuesday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms likely across the Deep South on Monday... ...Santa Ana winds impact southern California Monday into Tuesday... A low pressure system developing along a sharp front over the Deep South will continue to spread wintry precipitation from the central Plains to the Northeast during the next couple of days. To begin, heavy snow continues to fall across parts of southern Colorado as an upper-level trough passes through the region. This upper-level trough is also responsible for invigorating another round of snow across the central Plains. Meanwhile, a swath of wintry precipitation associated with a downstream disturbance is now spreading into the central Appalachians and the interior northern Mid-Atlantic. As the upper-level trough over the Rockies moves quickly into the central Plains and interacts with the sharp front, more wintry precipitation is expected to quickly expand across the Mid-Mississippi Valley today and then move into the Northeast on Tuesday. There is still uncertainty regarding the track of this intensifying low pressure system. This will determine how far south the wintry precipitation will develop over the Northeast. Nevertheless, southern New England can expect snow to gradually change over to rain today while mixed precipitation or freezing rain is expected further inland. Interior New England will likely see all snow lasting from Monday night through Tuesday. Although the low will quickly move away from the Northeast Tuesday night, a weaker system will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes, leading to development of lake-effect snows which could spill across interior New England into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, thunderstorms will likely develop across the Deep South as the low pressure system intensifies along the sharp front. Fueled by increasing moisture, warmth and instability from the Gulf of Mexico, these thunderstorms will likely become strong to severe as they sweep across the central and eastern Gulf states later today into tonight. In the wake of the front, a strong high pressure system builds into the Great Basin will set up a dry, gusty northeast flow across California on Monday and Tuesday, with the promise of cool, Santa Ana winds which appear to be moderate in strength. Due to recent rains wetting area vegetation, fire weather danger looks low per guidance from the Storm Prediction Center. The winds should subside a bit on Wednesday as a compact Pacific cyclone is forecast to approach central California. Rain and gusty winds will likely develop along the coast on Wednesday, especially for central California. The rain and high-elevation snow will also extend farther north into the Pacific Northwest due to a weakening front. Kong/Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php