Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EST Sat Feb 08 2020 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 09 2020 - 00Z Tue Feb 11 2020 ..Heavy snow for the Upper Midwest... ...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall on Monday into Tuesday over the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valleys, and Southern Appalachians ... A weak front over parts of the Great Lakes heading southward into Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians will produce light snow over parts of the Region that will dissipate over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. A quick-moving area of low pressure will move from the Northern/Central High Plains eastward to the Lower Great Lakes by Monday morning and northeastward into Southeastern Canada by Monday evening. The storm will produce heavy snow over parts of the Upper Midwest Overnight Saturday into Sunday evening. The system will also produce snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies on Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. The storm will also produce light snow and rain over parts of the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday afternoon into Monday. Along the associated front moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary on Sunday into Monday. Rain will develop along the front from the Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday evening will move eastward to the Central Appalachians southwestward to the Central Gulf Coast/Southern Plains by Monday evening. The WPC has issued a moderate risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the Southern Appalachians on Monday into Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will produce numerous areas of flash flooding. A ahead of the cold front associated with this low, rain is forecast to develop Sunday as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico flows into the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, moving east into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along with the possibility of flash flooding and river flooding in these areas. On Monday, rain totals will increase to the south and east over areas that have had much above average rainfall recently, so the flooding and flash flooding threat will ramp up significantly across the Southeast to Southern Appalachians. The backside of the cold front will make its way through the Southwest and southern California Sunday night and Monday, bringing light rain and snow showers there. Elsewhere, light precipitation is expected today as a weak frontal system moves across the Ohio Valley and Southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. A couple of inches of snow is possible in the Southern Appalachians, and some snow could mix in as far south as Atlanta. The Northwest is finally expecting a dry period after Saturday as ridging builds in early next week. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php