Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 218 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 13 2020 - 00Z Sat Feb 15 2020 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall from northern Mississippi to central Kentucky through Thursday morning. A broad area from northeast Tee Upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau for Wednesday. A Slight Risk remains today (Tuesday) from eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas expanding into the Upper Ohio Valley... ...A Slight Risk of Severe Weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for portions of the central Gulf states and the Tennessee Valley... ...Light-to-moderate snow is possible with some mixed freezing rain will be possible across the northern Ohio Valley into Central New England tonight and tomorrow... ...High elevation very heavy snows return to the Olympic and northern Cascade Mountains Thursday into Friday bleeding over to the northern Rockies by Friday... A surface cyclone had developed across Louisiana and is expected to strengthen as it slides northeast into the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the Upper Ohio River Valley early tomorrow. Along and ahead of the surface low, deep Gulf moisture will be available for thunderstorms capable of producing isolated tornadoes and severe winds across MS into northern Alabama and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather to account for such. Additionally, these storms have a potential for 2 to 3 inches of rainfall which has lead to Weather Prediction Center issuing a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across much of the same area into the Cumberland Plateau. In combination with saturated soils over the last few weeks, flooding is likely with some potential for flash flooding conditions tonight into early Thursday morning with much of the area from northeast Texas to West Virginia and Southern Ohio/Indiana to central Alabama/Mississippi under flash flooding watches. North of the front, cooler air across the northern Ohio River Valley into the central Hudson River Valley allow for remaining moisture to convert into light to moderate snow fall with the potential of 3 to 6 inches of snow from N Missouri to the Lower Great Lakes, with freezing rain and mixed wintry precipitation south of the snow, across Central IND, OH into PA and then into Central New England by Thursday. The storm will weaken over the Allegheny Plateau and transfer to a developing coastal low that will help press the moisture/rainfall offshore with lingering showers across the Southeast into Florida at the tail end of the front by Friday morning. An Arctic cold front is already progressing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and will continue to drop south and east bringing cold and drier conditions in its wake. Temperatures will be about 10-20 degrees below average from the Northern and Central Plains tomorrow (Thursday) and into the Ohio Valley and Interior New England/Lower Great Lakes by Friday. The cold surge does drop temperatures below normal across the Southern Plains, but only about 5-10 degrees as the coldest air is directed more east and south by later Thursday. The active train of storms across the Gulf of Alaska will slowly drift south and start to affect the Pacific Northwest by early Thursday. This will bring increased moisture into the orographic areas of the Olympic and northern Cascade Ranges. Lower elevations will see moderate rainfall but significant higher elevation snows are expected late Thursday into Friday with over 1 to 2 feet forecast across the Washington Cascades with the peaks of the range, perhaps as great as 3 to 4 feet through early Saturday. Heavy snows will bleed over the Northern Rockies and Blue Ranges by Friday with up to a foot, perhaps 2 feet in the peaks. Gallina Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php