Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Tue Mar 03 2020 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 04 2020 - 00Z Fri Mar 06 2020 ...Moisture rich southern storm system to produce heavy rain through mid-week, including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding from the Southern Plains to the Southeast... ...Heavy mountain snow in the Cascades, high winds in the Northern Rockies, accumulating snow possible over the northern Great Lakes... Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Gulf states and into the Southeast over the next few days. Convection will develop along and ahead of an advancing cold front through the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys today and persist across the Gulf states as the trailing edge stalls to the north of the Gulf Coast. There will be additional support and forcing for showers and thunderstorms across the Southern Plains and western Gulf as a highly anomalous upper trough passes over northern Mexico toward the Gulf of Mexico. This draped, slow moving front will continue to provide focus for continuous convective development. This pattern will be favorable for slow moving/training thunderstorms that are efficient rain producers. WPC has identified a large portion of the Gulf states and the Southeast as having a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding potential. SPC has Slight Risks for strong to severe thunderstorms in nearly the same area. Further north, showers will track through the Northeast making for a wet Tuesday evening rush hour. The highest rain totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts is expected to occur from southern Mississippi to southern South Carolina. Rain and mountain snow will move into the Pacific Northwest by this evening with another round coming by midday Thursday- resulting in locally heavy snow for the highest peaks of the Cascades and Northern Rockies. The high winds across most of Montana and the western Dakotas today will begin to taper off during the overnight hours - there are several counties with High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect. Widespread snowmelt and runoff across North Dakota and northwest Minnesota is causing flooding of smaller streams and rivers. As ice cover dwindles and water levels rise, flooding may become more expansive. A quick shot of 6 or more inches of snow across the northern Great Lakes will be possible Thursday as a couple of fronts enter the region. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php