Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 458 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 22 2020 - 12Z Fri Apr 24 2020 ...There is a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northeast Texas, into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast... ...There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Increasing Fire Weather Risk from southeast Arizona, across southern New Mexico and into Southwest Texas... ...Below average temperatures expected over the northeast quarter of the nation... A storm system developing across the Southern Plains will be producing a widespread region of potentially heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains, east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the South. The threat will be confined across the Southern Plains into early Wednesday, pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and the South Wednesday into Thursday. Areas from northern Louisiana into much of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia have received much above normal amounts of precipitation over the past several days. The heavy rains from this next system will likely move over areas that recently received heavy rains and flooding. Stream flows are much above average across these areas, with the expected additional rains likely to produce additional flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. On the west and southwest side of the developing Southern Plains storm, winds will be increasing across the Southern High Plains into portions of the Southwest. These increasing winds and low relative humidities will increase the fire weather threat over the next two days from southeast Arizona, across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. In the wake of the strong front moving off the northeast coast this evening, temperatures will be below average over the next two days across much of the northeast quarter of the nation from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and New England. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php