Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Valid 00Z Wed Apr 29 2020 - 00Z Fri May 01 2020 ...Severe weather is expected this evening and overnight from parts of the Midwest to the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Some flash flooding will be possible over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through early Wednesday... ...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will shift across the remainder of the South and into the Eastern U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday.. ...Very warm weather to continue across much of the West... A developing storm system over the Plains and Midwest will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms, including a likelihood of severe weather, for parts of the Midwest and extending south to include the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley going through the evening and overnight hours. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk of severe weather for much of eastern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas, and far western Arkansas where the greatest risk of large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be going through tonight. In addition to the severe weather hazards, there will be heavy rainfall and some concerns for flash flooding for many of the same areas. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for areas of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and west-central Mississippi going through early Wednesday morning. As much as 2 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated heavier amounts, can be expected for these areas. The aforementioned storm system will be moving into the eastern U.S. by Wednesday night and Thursday as low pressure advances into the Great Lakes region. This will drive a cold front eastward from the Midwest to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and across the Gulf Coast. The threat of severe weather, especially from damaging winds, is expected to shift out of the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning and move east across the Gulf Coast states going through Wednesday evening. On Thursday, interior sections of the Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic region may have some localized concerns for severe weather too. Heavy rainfall is expected across many of these areas, and especially areas of the central and southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday as a new area of low pressure forms in the lee of the Appalachians and helps to enhance the fetch of warm, moist air northward up along the Eastern Seaboard. As much as 2 to 3 inches of rain will also be expected for these areas with isolated heavier amounts. Some runoff problems and areas of flooding will be possible given the totals and relatively wet antecedent conditions. Meanwhile, much above normal temperatures will continue over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin as a strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather here at least through midweek. Temperatures will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and that will allow some of the interior deserts of the Southwest to again exceed 100 degrees. By Thursday, some of this very warm air will begin to shift eastward and should begin to advance out across the High Plains as the ridge shifts eastward in response to an upper trough approaching the West Coast. By contrast, much of the East will tend to have cooler than normal temperatures given the large expanse of clouds and rainfall expected over the next couple of days. In some cases, especially over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and parts of the Northeast, the temperatures will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php