Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Valid 00Z Thu May 14 2020 - 00Z Sat May 16 2020 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the Southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes over the next few days... ...Warmer temperatures finally return to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week... The extended stretch of abnormally cold conditions from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast is on the verge of ending. As cold Canadian high pressure remains entrenched over these regions, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories extend from the shores of Lake Erie to the New England coast tonight. As a warm front to the south begins its trek north, temperatures will soar to much warmer levels by Thursday with parts of the Ohio Valley making a run at 80 degrees on Thursday. It will be the Mid-Atlantic's and Northeast's turn to welcome a surge of warmer than normal temperatures by Friday. The pattern change across the Lower 48 also refers to a more active storm track across the central U.S. today and into the second half of the week. A pair of upper-level troughs out West will work in tandem with a strengthening high pressure system over the Southeast to funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Nation's Heartland. Episodes of severe weather are likely from the southern and central Plains to the lower Great Lakes, highlighted with an Enhanced Risk from the Storm Prediction Center today in northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Excessive rainfall is also on the table from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, with a Slight Risk in place for Thursday and Friday. Rainfall totals could range between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Elsewhere across the CONUS, rounds of showers are likely from far northwest California to western Washington as steady onshore flow brings beneficial rainfall to drought stricken areas of the Pacific Northwest. Speaking of "drought stricken", dry and warm conditions continue for the southwestern quadrant of the U.S. that support elevated and critical fire weather conditions in the Four Corners region and southern High Plains. Dry conditions are also anticipated throughout much of the Southeast as high pressure dominates the region the rest of the week. The lone exception to this dry pattern is in South Florida and the Florida Keys, where a stalled frontal boundary and forming low pressure system is likely to keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast through the week's end. Snell/Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php