Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Valid 12Z Thu May 14 2020 - 12Z Sat May 16 2020 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast... ...Warmer temperatures make their much anticipated return to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... ...Wet Northwest, Dry Southwest and Southeast, potential subtropical system off the Southeast Coast this weekend... The weather pattern the remainder of the work-week will characterized by high pressure over near the Southeast coast and waves of upper-level disturbances traversing the northern U.S. within zonal flow aloft. This allows for a channeling of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Heartland and Great Lakes today and into the start of the weekend. Thunderstorms and showers are expected to continue this morning and redevelop this afternoon as a frontal system swings by to the north. Slight Risks for both severe weather and excessive rainfall have been issued today from the Central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. This same storm system will then head for the Northeast on Friday, thus shifting the severe threat into the region. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Middle Mississippi Valley is expected to trigger additional showers and thunderstorms on Friday before stalling over the region early Saturday. The Southern Plains are primed for more thunderstorms today and persisting into Saturday, some of which could be severe. After a remarkably chilly start to May for much of the East, summer-like conditions return starting today in the Ohio Valley as a warm front lifts north of the region. To the east, a cool and crisp Thursday morning is on tap across the Northeast with daytime highs still on the seasonally cool side. As a warm front to the south heads to the north tonight, it will be the Mid-Atlantic's turn to welcome a surge of warmer than normal temperatures on Friday. The Mid-Atlantic should expect another warm day on Saturday while New England contends with yet another day of cooler temperatures thanks to a cold frontal passage Friday night. Elsewhere, rounds of showers are likely from far northwest California to western Washington today as steady onshore flow brings beneficial rainfall to drought stricken areas of the Pacific Northwest. A brief bubble of high pressure will build in on Friday before another push of precipitation arrives this weekend. Speaking of "drought stricken", dry and warm conditions continue for the southwestern quadrant of the U.S. that support elevated fire weather conditions in the Four Corners region and southern High Plains today. Dry conditions are also anticipated throughout much of the Southeast as high pressure dominates the region the rest of the week. By this weekend, focus shifts to the Bahamas as the potential exists for a subtropical storm/depression to develop off the Southeast coast. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php